Plain-language explanation.
Climate change is reshaping geopolitics. The energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables is creating new winners and losers. Climate change itself is a security threat — driving displacement, resource conflicts, and state fragility. International climate negotiations involve not just environmental policy but also deep conflicts of interest between rich and poor countries, fossil fuel producers and importers, and current and future generations.
Core concepts and standard treatment.
International climate negotiations: the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change — 1992 Rio Earth Summit); Kyoto Protocol (1997 — binding caps for developed countries, CDM for developing countries, US never ratified, Canada withdrew); Paris Agreement (2015) — nationally determined contributions (NDCs), 1.5°C and 2°C goals, global stocktake every 5 years, $100 billion per year climate finance pledge; and COP (Conference of the Parties) — Glasgow (COP26, 2021: coal phasedown, methane pledge); Sharm el-Sheikh (COP27, 2022: Loss and Damage fund); Dubai (COP28, 2023: first global stocktake, "transitioning away from fossil fuels"). CBDR-RC: Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities — the foundational equity principle of the climate regime (historical emissions, development needs).
Deeper theory, debates and edge cases.
Energy geopolitics and the transition: fossil fuel geopolitics — OPEC and Saudi Arabia's swing producer role; Russia's gas leverage over Europe (Nordstream, the energy weapon in the Ukraine war); and the "carbon club" of producer states facing stranded assets. Critical minerals geopolitics: the energy transition requires lithium (batteries), cobalt, nickel, copper, rare earth elements — concentrated in China, DRC, Chile, Australia, Indonesia; China's dominance in processing (>80% of lithium refining, >60% of cobalt, dominant in rare earths); US-EU industrial policy responses (IRA, Critical Raw Materials Act) and the new resource nationalism. Green industrial policy: subsidies race — US Inflation Reduction Act ($369 billion in clean energy subsidies); EU Green Deal and RePowerEU; China's dominant position in solar, wind, EVs, and batteries.
How it is applied in practice.
Climate security and justice: climate as a threat multiplier — IPCC reports on climate risks to conflict, migration, and food security; the Sahel (climate-conflict nexus in West Africa); Bangladesh and small island states (existential displacement risk); and climate-security analytical debate (Busby, Barnett, Hartmann — questioning linear causation models). Loss and damage: countries suffering climate impacts they did not cause demanding compensation — the Santiago Network, the new Loss and Damage fund established at COP27 (design contested, capitalisation far below needs); and the climate reparations argument. Climate litigation: national and international cases using human rights law to challenge government inaction; corporate liability cases (fossil fuel companies and climate attribution science). Geoengineering governance: solar radiation management (stratospheric aerosol injection — cooling effect but unilateral deployment risks, "termination shock", transboundary effects without global consent); marine cloud brightening; and carbon dioxide removal (afforestation, BECCS, direct air capture — scaling challenges).