Curated by Vinod Kumar Jain & Amit Jain · All Frontier Global · free, no login
Calculate the expected commission and return on a trade mandate before you commit time to it. Enter the deal value, your success fee, the costs you will carry whether or not it closes, and your honest probability of closing. The tool returns the expected value, the return on those costs, and the probability you would need just to break even.
The arithmetic, in order
Gross fee if it closes = deal value × success fee % + any fixed fee
Expected value = gross fee × probability of close
Expected value net of costs = expected value − costs carried
ROI on costs = (expected value − costs) ÷ costs × 100
Break-even probability = costs ÷ gross fee × 100 — below this, the mandate loses money on average
Honest limits
Expected values are planning aids, not forecasts. The expected value is what you would average over many mandates like this one. You are not running many; you are running this one, and it either closes or it does not. Use the number to rank opportunities and to decide how much to spend chasing them — not to book revenue.
The probability is the weakest input, and it is yours. Nothing here estimates it. People systematically overestimate their own close rates, so if you have a track record, use it rather than a feeling; if you do not, run the slider across a range and see where the break-even sits.
Costs carried are usually understated. The honest figure includes your own time at a rate you would actually accept, not just cash out of the door.
Single currency, no discounting for time. A fee eighteen months out is worth less than the same fee next month, and this arithmetic does not adjust for that.
Sources
There are none, and none are needed: every figure is one you entered and the arithmetic is written out above. Nothing is fetched and nothing is stored.