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India–UK trade corridor CETA · in force 15 July 2026

Rendered from the All Frontier Global corridor registry · every figure below carries a numbered source

India and the United Kingdom trade under a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement in force since 15 July 2026[1] — the only corridor in this registry whose agreement both entered into force and began operating inside the reporting period. Two official statistical series describe the corridor, one British and one Indian, and the registry forbids blending them: they are rendered separately below and never summed, converted or reconciled. Where the two governments state different figures for the same thing, those conflicts are rendered as conflicts rather than resolved. This page renders the corridor registry record — the agreement as officially stated, both series side by side, the mechanics from rules of origin to mobility, and the figures no official source would supply.

At a glance

The agreement

Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and India (CETA). Accompanied by a separate but linked instrument, the Agreement on Social Security relating to Social Security Contributions (the Double Contributions Convention, DCC).[2]

Collection first published 24 July 2025; page carries 'Updated at 2026-08-12T14:02:09+01:00'. All 30 chapters are published as 'International treaty' documents dated 15 July 2026. The UK command-paper version is CP 1496 (CS India No.1/2026); the DCC is CS India No.2/2026.

It was signed on 24 July 2025[3] and entered into force on 15 July 2026[1]. HEADLINE STATUS. Verbatim: 'The UK-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA), one of the biggest trade deals of modern times, came into force on 15 July.' Independently confirmed on the Indian side by PIB, 15 July 2026: 'The India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), a landmark milestone in the strategic partnership between India and the United Kingdom, entered into force today' (pib.gov.in PRID=2284951). Also confirmed operationally by HMRC's UK Integrated Online Tariff service.

Ratified by both parties and fully in force. Verbatim official statement: 'Following the successful completion of internal procedures and ratifications by both governments, the agreements will formally enter into force on 15th July 2026.'[4]

This is the clearest official statement located that both ratifications are complete. 'The agreements' is plural because the release covers CETA and the Agreement on Social Security Contributions together. The UK side announced the same date on 17 June 2026 via GOV.UK ('The countdown begins: UK-India FTA enters into force on July 15th') without using the word 'ratification'. As of 18 August 2026 no official source records any reservation, carve-out, delayed chapter or provisional-application arrangement.

The entry-into-force clause, and the date nobody states

Article 30.6: 'This Agreement shall enter into force 60 days after the date on which the Parties exchange written notifications confirming that they have completed their respective domestic legal requirements necessary for the entry into force of this Agreement or on such other date as the Parties may agree.'[7]

Quoted verbatim from the treaty text. No official source located states the calendar date on which the Article 30.6 written notifications were actually exchanged — see Not yet verified. Do NOT back-calculate it from the 15 July 2026 in-force date; that would be an inference, not a sourced fact.[7]

Parliamentary scrutiny on the UK side

The treaty was presented to Parliament as command paper CP 1496 (CS India No.1/2026) in January 2026, with the GOV.UK publication dated 21 January 2026. The House of Commons Business and Trade Committee published its report on CETA (HC 996) on 21 January 2026, described as coinciding with 'the start of the official scrutiny period in Parliament'. The agreement was debated in the House of Commons on 9 February 2026 and in the House of Lords on 4 March 2026. The Government Response (Seventh Special Report, HC 1832) was published 17 April 2026.[8]

The GOV.UK command-paper page states only 'This treaty was presented to Parliament in January 2026' — it does not give the precise laying date, and neither the command-paper page nor the House of Commons Library briefing states the exact date UK ratification was completed under the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010. See Not yet verified.[8]

What each side opened

Tariffs eliminated on 99% of Indian goods / 99% of India's tariff lines, described by the Government of India as covering 'nearly 100% of the trade value'. The UK side states: 'Starting 15 July, 99% of Indian goods entering the UK and 90% of UK goods entering India will either be duty free or reduced in tariffs.'[1][6]

Verbatim Indian framing: 'By granting zero-duty access on nearly 99% of India's exports, covering almost 100% of the trade value'. Minister Piyush Goyal, 17 June 2026: 'By securing immediate duty-free access on 99% of our tariff lines, we have systematically dismantled long-standing tariff walls.'[6][9]

India's offer is stated differently by the two governments. UK (DBT conclusion summary): 'India will remove or reduce tariffs, or pre-existing zero tariffs, on 90% tariff lines, which will cover 92% of existing goods imports from the UK (based on 2022 trade)', with '64% of tariff lines ... eligible for tariff-free imports into India' on day one, 'covering GBP 1.9 billion of current UK exports to India (2022)', rising after 10-year staging to '85% tariff lines and 66% of existing Indian imports from the UK'. India (PIB): India 'offered tariff concessions on 89.5% of its tariff lines', with '24.5% of the UK's export value will receive immediate duty-free access'.[10][6]

The 90% (UK) vs 89.5% (India) tariff-line figures and the 92%-of-imports (UK, 2022 basis) vs 24.5%-of-export-value-immediately (India) figures are recorded exactly as each government states them. They are NOT reconciled in any official source — the UK figure is a cumulative post-staging coverage measure on a 2022 trade base and the Indian 24.5% is a day-one measure. Do not blend. See Not yet verified.[10][6]

Sector terms as officially stated

The Double Contributions Convention

In force. The Agreement on Social Security relating to Social Security Contributions (Double Contributions Convention, DCC) entered into force on 15 July 2026, the same day as CETA. Verbatim (HMRC/GOV.UK): 'The UK has signed a National Insurance Double Contributions Convention (DCC) with India which comes into force on 15 July 2026.' It ensures 'that workers moving between the UK and India only pay social security contributions in one country at a time.' The exemption period for detached workers is 60 months: 'The 52-week exemption period will be extended reciprocally to 60 months for detached workers.'[11]

DURATION DISCREPANCY, RESOLVED: the July 2025 DBT conclusion summary and India's Ministry of Commerce April 2026 PDF both describe a 3-year exemption; the final instrument and the June/July 2026 guidance give 60 months. PIB (17 June 2026) states the exemption was 'extended from 3 to 5 years', which reconciles the two. The 60-month/5-year figure is authoritative. GOV.UK also states 'Indian detached workers will not build entitlement to the UK State Pension' and that the DCC does not affect the UK immigration health surcharge. India's command paper reference is CS India No.2/2026.[11][9]

The Government of India states the DCC eliminates dual contributions 'for assignments of up to 60 months', benefiting 'over 75,000 Indian professionals' and '900+ companies', with estimated annual savings of 'more than USD 600 million'.[6]

A separate Government of India document (PIB, 18 December 2025) puts the saving at 'INR 4,000+ crore'. These are Indian-government estimates of benefit, not measured outcomes, and no UK-side equivalent figure was located. The GOV.UK DCC explainer states only that the DCC's cost 'is likely to be a fraction of the overall deal's economic benefit'.[6]

Review clause

The agreement carries a 'built-in review within five years, and every five years after that' (Article 30.5). The Customs and Trade Facilitation Working Group is required to 'meet within six months of the date of entry into force of this Agreement and thereafter annually' (Article 5.18). The UK Government further committed to publish an implementation plan 'no later than three months before entry into force' and to report progress on professional qualifications 'within twelve months of the Agreement taking effect'.[12]

The Government also committed to 'endeavour to publish provisional data on utilisation rates within the first year after entry into force - subject to information provision from Indian customs.' No utilisation data had been published as at 18 August 2026.[12]

Primary official sources for the agreement itself: [1][9][2][8][10][7][11][13][4][6][14][3][12][15][16][17]

Trade flows

TWO SEPARATE OFFICIAL SERIES ARE RECORDED BELOW AND MUST NEVER BE BLENDED OR SUMMED ACROSS SERIES. The UK series (ONS/HMRC, compiled and published by the Department for Business and Trade) is denominated in GBP, covers goods AND services, and is reported on rolling four-quarter or calendar-year bases. The Indian series (Ministry of Commerce and Industry / PIB) is denominated in USD, reports merchandise and services separately, and uses the Indian April-March fiscal year. The two are not reconcilable from any official source located.

The UK series

Series owner: UK — Office for National Statistics and HM Revenue & Customs, published by the Department for Business and Trade. Period as published: Four quarters to the end of Q1 2026[5].

UK series — Four quarters to the end of Q1 2026, Department for Business and Trade[5]
MeasureValuePeriod
Total trade, goods and servicesGBP 48.4 bnFour quarters to end Q1 2026
UK exports to IndiaGBP 20.2 bnFour quarters to end Q1 2026
UK imports from IndiaGBP 28.2 bnFour quarters to end Q1 2026
UK trade deficit with IndiaGBP 8 bn directly stated, not derivedFour quarters to end Q1 2026

Total: Verbatim: 'GBP 48.4 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2026', 'an increase of 5.7% or GBP 2.6 billion in current prices from the four quarters to the end of Q1 2025'. Total trade in goods AND services.[5]

UK exports: Verbatim: 'an increase of 14.1% or GBP 2.5 billion in current prices, compared to the four quarters to the end of Q1 2025'. Split: goods GBP 6.3 billion (31.4%), services GBP 13.8 billion (68.6%).[5]

UK imports: Verbatim: 'an increase of 0.4% or GBP 112 million in current prices, compared to the four quarters to the end of Q1 2025'. Split: goods GBP 10.9 billion (38.7%), services GBP 17.3 billion (61.3%).[5]

Deficit: DIRECTLY STATED, NOT DERIVED. Verbatim: 'a trade deficit of GBP 8.0 billion with India, compared to a trade deficit of GBP 10.4 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2025'. The deficit runs in India's favour and narrowed by GBP 2.4 billion year on year.[5]

Goods trade GBP 17.3 billion (35.7% of the total); services trade GBP 31.1 billion (64.3% of the total). The India-UK corridor is majority-services by value.[5]

India was 'the UK's 11th largest trading partner in the four quarters to the end of Q1 2026 accounting for 2.5% of total UK trade'. India was the UK's 12th largest export market (2.2% of total UK exports) and 11th largest import market (2.9% of total UK imports).[5]

India has moved up from 12th to 11th: the July 2025 DBT conclusion summary recorded India as 'the UK's 12th largest trading partner, with total trade worth GBP 43 billion' in 2024.[5][10]

The UK series on a calendar year

The same series owner also publishes rounded calendar-year headlines: GBP 48 bn for 2025 (calendar year)[1] and GBP 43 bn for 2024 (calendar year)[10].

Verbatim: 'UK and India total trade, worth GBP 48 billion in 2025, is set for an immediate boost'. Rounded headline figure with no export/import split given in this source. Distinct period from the GBP 48.4 billion four-quarters-to-Q1-2026 figure above — do not treat as the same datapoint.[1][5]

The Indian series

Series owner: India — Ministry of Commerce and Industry, via Press Information Bureau. The Indian side reports merchandise and services separately, on different calendars, and this page keeps them separate[6].

Indian series, merchandise — FY2025-26 (April 2025-March 2026), Press Information Bureau[6]
MeasureValuePeriod
Total merchandise tradeUS$25.12 bnFY2025-26
India’s exports to the UKUS$13.44 bnFY2025-26
India’s imports from the UKUS$11.68 bnFY2025-26
India’s merchandise balancenot stated by any official Indian sourceFY2025-26
India runs a merchandise surplus with the UK on this series. No official Indian source located states the merchandise balance as a figure in its own right — see Not yet verified. Note this is the reverse sign of the UK's overall GBP 8.0 billion deficit only because the UK figure includes services, where the UK's position differs; the two are on different bases and must not be compared directly.[6][5]

Merchandise total: MERCHANDISE ONLY — excludes services. Stated as 'USD 25.12 billion'.[6]

Exports: Corroborated by a separate PIB release of 28 July 2026 (PRID=2290437) giving India-UK merchandise exports of USD 13,444.19 million for FY2025-26.[6][18]

Indian series, services — 2024 (calendar year), Press Information Bureau[6]
MeasureValuePeriod
Total services tradeUS$35.44 bn2024
India’s services exports to the UKUS$21.66 bn2024
India’s services imports from the UKUS$13.78 bn2024

Services total: Stated as 'USD 35.44 billion in 2024', comprising India's exports of 'USD 21.66 billion' and imports of 'USD 13.78 billion'. Reported on a CALENDAR-year basis, unlike the merchandise series above which is fiscal-year. Do not add the two.[6]

Services exports: An earlier Government of India document (PIB, 18 December 2025) states 'India exported over US$ 19.8 billion in services to the UK in 2023', consistent with growth into 2024.[6]

The political headline, carried as a headline

'Bilateral trade between the two countries has already reached USD 56 billion, with both sides aiming to double this level by 2030.'[19]

This is the round headline figure the Government of India uses in political communication (also 'nearly USD 56 billion' in the 24 July 2025 CETA signature release and the Ministry of Commerce CETA PDF). It carries NO stated reference year and no goods/services split, and it cannot be tied to the disaggregated FY2025-26 merchandise and 2024 services figures above without an inference. Treated here as a stated official headline, not as a measured annual total.[19][6]

The India-UK Roadmap 2030 sets a joint goal of doubling bilateral trade to USD 100 billion by 2030.[4] A political target, not a forecast produced by either statistical agency.

What the modelling projects

UK GDP estimated to increase by 0.13%, 'equivalent to GBP 4.8 billion'. Bilateral trade estimated to increase 'by nearly 39% in the long run, equivalent to GBP 25.5 billion a year'. UK exports to India up 'nearly 60% in the long run - this is equivalent to an additional GBP 15.7 billion'; UK imports from India up '25% in the long run - this is equivalent to GBP 9.8 billion'. UK real wages up 0.19%, 'the equivalent of GBP 2.2 billion a year'. Import duties on UK exports to India estimated to fall by 'around GBP 400 million' at entry into force, doubling 'to approximately GBP 900 million after 10 years'; duties on UK imports from India to fall by GBP 220 million. The Government of India separately states Indian GDP is expected to rise by GBP 5.1 billion a year.[20][1]

MODELLED PROJECTIONS, NOT MEASURED OUTCOMES. Baseline is the 2019 Global Trade Analysis Project dataset. The House of Commons Business and Trade Committee separately cites potential duty savings of 'up to GBP 3.2 billion' after ten years, plus modelled automotive export increases of 311% and spirits export increases of 180%; the GBP 3.2 billion figure is not reconciled with the impact assessment's approximately GBP 900 million annual figure in any source located — see Not yet verified.[20][15]

Investment stocks

UK outward FDI stock in India was GBP 19.1 billion at the end of 2024, '10.0% or GBP 1.7 billion higher than the end of 2023', accounting for 1.0% of total UK outward FDI stock. UK inward FDI stock from India was GBP 6.1 billion at the end of 2024, '49.8% or GBP 6.1 billion lower than the end of 2023', accounting for 0.3% of total UK inward FDI stock.[5]

The inward stock figures as published are internally odd (a GBP 6.1 billion fall to a GBP 6.1 billion level implies a halving from GBP 12.2 billion, but the stated 49.8% and the stated absolute change are not mutually consistent at the rounding shown). Recorded exactly as published; not corrected, not derived.[5]

Corroborating and mirror sources

Where the official figures conflict

The registry records conflicting official statements as conflicts. Nothing below is averaged, bridged or decided between; each figure is shown with the government that published it, and where the registry itself records a resolution, the resolution is shown in its own words.

Top goods, each direction

Every valued commodity basket on this page belongs to the UK series: it is the only series that publishes one. The Indian government publishes beneficiary sectors and tariff-line counts instead, and those are listed separately below rather than priced.

UK goods exports to India — Four quarters to the end of Q1 2026[5]
CommodityValueShareChange on a year earlier
Non-ferrous metalsGBP 1.1 bn17.5%an increase of 42.7%
Metal ores & scrapGBP 823 mn13%a decrease of 9.8%
Mechanical power generators (intermediate)GBP 546.5 mn8.6%a decrease of 38.9%
Beverages & tobaccoGBP 313.8 mn4.9%an increase of 21.4%
General industrial machinery (capital)GBP 283.1 mn4.5%an increase of 15.0%

Shares are of UK GOODS exports to India (GBP 6.3 billion), not of total trade. The five named lines together account for 48.5% of UK goods exports to India as published. 'Beverages & tobacco' is the category into which Scotch whisky falls — the CETA spirits concession is expected to act here.[5]

UK goods imports from India — Four quarters to the end of Q1 2026[5]
CommodityValueShareChange on a year earlier
ClothingGBP 975.9 mn9%an increase of 8.1%
Mechanical power generators (intermediate)GBP 897 mn8.2%an increase of 15.3%
Refined oilGBP 884 mn8.1%a decrease of 34.4%
Medicinal & pharmaceutical productsGBP 693.4 mn6.4%a decrease of 1.8%
Organic chemicalsGBP 548.1 mn5%a decrease of 21.3%

Shares are of UK GOODS imports from India (GBP 10.9 billion). Clothing is the single largest line and is a direct beneficiary of the CETA textiles concession (1,143 zero-duty tariff lines). Refined oil fell 34.4% year on year, the largest move in the basket.[5]

UK services exports to India — Four quarters to the end of Q1 2026[5]
CategoryValueShare
TravelGBP 8.3 bn60.3%
Telecommunications, computer and information servicesGBP 1.7 bn12.6%
Other Business ServicesGBP 1.3 bn9.5%

Shares are of UK services exports to India (GBP 13.8 billion). Travel at 60.3% dominates the UK's services exports to India — this is education and tourism spend by Indian visitors in the UK, not a tradeable-services concession item.[5]

UK services imports from India — Four quarters to the end of Q1 2026[5]
CategoryValueShare
Other Business ServicesGBP 11.3 bn65.5%
Telecommunications, computer and information servicesGBP 2.4 bn13.7%
TravelGBP 2.3 bn13.3%

Shares are of UK services imports from India (GBP 17.3 billion). 'Other Business Services' at GBP 11.3 billion is the single largest item in the entire India-UK trade relationship in either direction and any category — larger than all UK goods exports to India combined. This is where the mobility and DCC provisions bite.[5]

Sectors India names as CETA beneficiaries, with no per-line values

Period as given: Sectors named as CETA beneficiaries; no per-line values published.

The Government of India publishes CETA beneficiary SECTORS and tariff-line COUNTS, not commodity-level export values to the UK. No official Indian commodity-value breakdown of India-UK trade could be sourced in this pass — see Not yet verified. The UK/ONS basket above is therefore the only officially valued goods breakdown in this file, and it is on the UK series.[6][5]

Mechanics and open issues

This is a live agreement, so its mechanics are operative rather than prospective: origin proofs are being lodged, clearance clocks are running and the first review deadlines are already dated. The entries are listed as the registry states them.

Logistics

The registry is explicit that this corridor has no officially designated physical infrastructure: no port pair, no shipping service and no maritime initiative is named by either government. What is recorded is one ceremonial node, an air-services negotiation still described as under discussion, and the treaty’s own clearance-time obligations.

Developments 2025–26

Not yet verified

Where an item below quotes a figure, the marker points to the source this page does carry on that subject — not to a source for the unverified figure itself, which by definition has none.

The registry records what could not be sourced as well as what could. These are open items, listed exactly as the registry states them — not gaps we have filled from memory or inference.

Sources

Numbered to match the markers in the text above. Every figure on this page traces to one of these; nothing is estimated, averaged or carried over from outside the registry.

  1. UK Department for Business and Trade (GOV.UK), news story published 17 July 2026 gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  2. UK Department for Business and Trade (GOV.UK) — CETA treaty text collection, 30 chapters gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  3. Government of India, Press Information Bureau (Ministry of Commerce and Industry) pib.gov.in accessed 18 August 2026
  4. Government of India, Press Information Bureau (Ministry of Commerce and Industry) — release dated 17 June 2026 pib.gov.in accessed 18 August 2026
  5. UK Department for Business and Trade — India trade and investment factsheet, 31 July 2026 edition assets.publishing.service.gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  6. Government of India, Press Information Bureau — 'India-UK CETA Comes into Effect', 15 July 2026; UK-side confirmation from GOV.UK UK-India trade deal conclusion summary pib.gov.in accessed 18 August 2026
  7. UK Department for Business and Trade (GOV.UK) — CETA Chapter 30, Final Provisions assets.publishing.service.gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  8. UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office / GOV.UK (command paper CP 1496); scrutiny dates from UK Parliament (committees.parliament.uk and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10258) gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  9. gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  10. UK Department for Business and Trade (GOV.UK) — UK-India trade deal: conclusion agreement summary; Indian figures from Government of India, Press Information Bureau (pib.gov.in PRID=2284878, 15 July 2026) gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  11. HM Revenue & Customs / GOV.UK (guidance published 7 July 2026); 60-month quote from the GOV.UK UK-India DCC explainer (updated 17 June 2026) gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  12. UK Parliament, House of Commons Business and Trade Committee — Government Response, Seventh Special Report (HC 1832), published 17 April 2026; Article numbers from the CETA treaty text on GOV.UK publications.parliament.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  13. UK Department for Business and Trade / HM Revenue & Customs (GOV.UK) — DCC explainer, updated 17 June 2026 gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  14. Government of India, Press Information Bureau — 'India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) Comes into Force; Export Consignment Flagged Off at Bengaluru', 15 July 2026 pib.gov.in accessed 18 August 2026
  15. UK Parliament, House of Commons Business and Trade Committee — report HC 996, 21 January 2026; Government Response HC 1832, 17 April 2026 committees.parliament.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  16. UK Parliament, House of Commons Library — research briefing CBP-10258, 'UK-India Free Trade Agreement' commonslibrary.parliament.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  17. HM Revenue & Customs — UK Integrated Online Tariff, news story 13 July 2026 trade-tariff.service.gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  18. Government of India, Press Information Bureau — 'India's Exports Scale Record US$ 863.1 Billion in FY 2025-26', 28 July 2026 pib.gov.in accessed 18 August 2026
  19. Government of India, Press Information Bureau — 'India's Trade Partnerships Powering Global Integration and Growth', 27 February 2026 pib.gov.in accessed 18 August 2026
  20. UK Department for Business and Trade — Impact assessment of the Free Trade Agreement between the UK and India, executive summary, published 9 March 2026; Indian GDP figure from GOV.UK news 17 July 2026 gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  21. UK Government Business Growth Service (business.gov.uk) guidance on the UK-India trade deal; underlying treaty text at GOV.UK CETA Chapter 3 and Annex 3A business.gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  22. UK Department for Business and Trade (GOV.UK) — CETA Chapter 5, Customs and Trade Facilitation assets.publishing.service.gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  23. UK Department for Business and Trade (GOV.UK) — UK-India Free Trade Agreement Business Mobility explainer, published 15 July 2026 gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  24. HM Treasury / HM Revenue & Customs (GOV.UK) — CBAM factsheet, first published 24 April 2025, last updated 28 November 2025 gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026
  25. UK Prime Minister's Office / Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (GOV.UK) — India-UK Joint Statement, 9 October 2025 gov.uk accessed 18 August 2026

Data verified 18 August 2026 · rendered from the corridor registry.

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